ESL ONE COLOGNE EU: A New Breakdown Of The Teams

The Statistics Of The Teams Participating At ESL One Cologne

Statistics and Form At ESL One Cologne

What Answers That We’re Looking For

In this breakdown we will try to answer three questions. I’m excited to see what the teams have stored for us and I’m also excited to see what type of form we can expect the team to enter ESL One Cologne with.

I’ll do my best to answer these three questions.

  1. Which team has the best form right now?
  2. Who will win ESL One Cologne from a statistical perspective?
  3. Who do I think will win ESL One Cologne?

Continue reading and we’ll find out together!


Player Breaks

Due to player breaks we don’t really have the best and most accurate numbers available. Some teams have actually started playing again after their breaks but the majority of the top teams, and the top teams in this tournament, has not really had the amount of games required to draw real conclusions.

ESL One Cologne isn’t played in the best time I’d say. ESL needed to postponed the event due to COVID-19 and it ended up being played right after the player breaks.

The teams have had time to prepare for the tournament, don’t get me wrong, but the real games where it really matters hasn’t been seen for a long time for some of the teams participating.

This has also led to the tournament being held online instead of offline and due to this we also have two separate tournaments. One for NA and one for EU.

I deliberately ignored Oceania and Asia.


Teams Participating

Currently we have these teams competing in ESL One Cologne EU.

  1. BIG
  2. Vitality
  3. Natus Vincere
  4. G2 Esports
  5. Fnatic
  6. FaZe
  7. Complexity
  8. Astralis
  9. NIP
  10. OG
  11. Mousesports
  12. MIBR
  13. Heroic
  14. MAD Lions
  15. Heretics
  16. Sprout

What Can We Expect?

While I want to say that ESL One Cologne is more packed, stacked and starstrucked than ever, I still have some doubts on which teams that will perform to their standards.

We’re kinda left in the mist.

You have to rely on knowledge of the teams and their playtsyles more than current form and statistics. It’s not the best tool to use when analyzing but it’s a vital tool needed to reach success when you don’t have much else to go on.

We also have to rely on what form the teams have had in their last three months(officially) as they are more likely to have played more matches the last three months than the last month alone.

While we go through these statistics we need some measurements to be able to get the most accurate numbers on each team to draw an accurate conclusion of the best performer. Form are based on the win rate and my own thoughts are based on both statistics and knowledge about the teams.

I will include last month statistics if there is one for each team. You know, for fun.

Maps: Minimum of 5 games played
Stats: Minimum last 3 months
Core: Minimum 3 players


The Teams In-Depth

BIG

Statistics and Form of BIG

Last 3 Months
Stats: 53 / 0 / 17
Maps Played: 70
Win rate: 75%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (16 – 2)
Worst Map: Inferno (6 – 2)
Permaban: Train
Form: 5 out of 5 stars (5 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 8 / 0 / 2
Maps Played: 10
Win rate: 80%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (3 – 0)
Worst Map: Vertigo (0 – 1)
Permaban: Train
Form: 5 out of 5 stars (5 / 5)

Summary:

BIG is probably the best team in this tournament in terms of form. They’ve had some great results lately beating good teams and winning some stacked tournaments. The performance of this team is godlike at the moment and they are a real competitor to the ESL One Cologne title.

I expect BIG to come prepared and I expect them to go far in this tournament. I’m worried about how they will perform against better teams but at the same time I’m confident that they can do it since it’s, again, an online tournament. The only real problem the team have, as I can think of, is that they need to be able to perform offline.

But since there’s no such thing for the upcoming months they don’t have to worry about that yet.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Guess: 2nd place


Vitality

Statistics and Form of Vitality

Last 3 Months
Stats: 35 / 2 / 18
Maps played: 55
Win rate: 63%
Best Map W/L: Vertigo (5 – 0)
Worst Map: Mirage (4 – 6)
Permaban: Train
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Summary:

Vitality is probably one of the best teams coming into ESL One Cologne that hasn’t had a single official game since 5th of July. Before that they had a great run beating some really good teams. The only loss came against BIG and that was also their last match before the player breaks. Questionable form right now however.

The team is straight back from vacation and we can’t really know how much practice they’ve had nor how good the results has been. Clearly missing an IGL since ALEX left and will continue to lack true leadership and structure until they find a new IGL. Shox won’t be enough.

If Vitality is going to win ESL One Cologne then ZywOo will have to step up. His performance of 2019 was incredible but his performance for 2020, so far, hasn’t been near as good as expected. RPK is another player that can bring some firepower but if neither of these players perform, Vitality won’t stand a chance.

I don’t think we will see this team in the finals nor in the semis. They’re just not that good anymore. They lack the structure and the teamplay. They might end up in the middle.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 6th place


Natus Vincere

Statistics and Form of NaVi

Last 3 Months
Stats: 28 / 0 / 19
Maps Played: 47
Win rate: 59%
Best Map W/L: Inferno (4 – 1)
Worst Map: Dust2 (4 – 6)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 3 out of 5 stars (3 / 5)

Summary:

NaVi is actually one of the favourites coming into ESL One Cologne if we look at the odds. The question is if they actually can manage to perform at their best level. I’m doubtful. Looking at their performance the last three months doesn’t give anyone any indication that NaVi will perform out of their minds.

Even s1mple himself feels that his current level is about 70% of what it can be. That alone is a sign no one likes to hear. He’s their star player and if he himself doesn’t feel at his best how does the other players in the team feel knowing that.

They’ve had to rely on s1mple for such a long time now. When electronic joined NaVi the team finally looked like they found a second s1mple but even electronic can’t be measured with s1mple when he performs at his highest level. Electronic can’t carry the team like s1mple can, it just doesn’t work like that.

I’m in doubts to how this team will perform. They did end their season with a couple of wins and while that must feel quite good, the wins came against teams at a much lower skill level.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 9th place


G2 Esports

Statistics and Form of G2

Last 3 Months
Stats: 19 / 0 / 21
Maps Played: 40
Win rate: 47,5%
Best Map W/L: Train (4 – 3)
Worst Map: Nuke (4 – 6)
Permaban: Overpass
Form: 2 out of 5 stars (2 / 5)

Summary:

I can’t believe that G2 is favoured to win ESL One Cologne, at least according to the odds. It’s mind blowing seeing their performance in the last three months and also knowing how “not-good” of a team that they are.

They have good players but that’s also exactly the only thing that they have in storage. They barely have any teamplay and they barely have any sort of structure in the team. Don’t get me started on their executes.

What’s good about the team is that they can play more or less any map, they’re very dynamic in that sense. Unfortunately they’re not really favoured on any map and they’re a team that can both win and lose on any map available.

They’re also a bit like NIP which I find to be an advantage. They have some sort of skill that lets them win rounds, maps and games that they shouldn’t win. I guess they have to depend on that alone.

We’ll see if they can bounce back to the form they ended the season with.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 10th place


Fnatic

Statistics and Form of Fnatic

Last 3 Months
Stats: 22 / 0 / 5
Maps Played: 47
Win rate: 46%
Best Map W/L: Overpass (3 – 2)
Worst Map: Nuke (2 – 9)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 2 out of 5 stars (2 / 5)

Summary:

I have a stable love-and-hate relationship with Fnatic.

They’re a really good team, don’t get me wrong. But I just can’t figure them out. They rarely perform out of their minds, at least not nowadays, and they never seem to find that consistency to be able to fight for the top spots regularly.

The form itself isn’t that good. They’ve been on a break, yes, but the form that they ended the season with wasn’t the best. Can the turn that around and amaze us? I hope so.

Fnatic were actually ranked number one in the world not too long ago. That only lasted for a week or two. They’re known to perform like that. Sometimes they just blow everyone’s minds and two weeks later it looks like they haven’t played CSGO before. It’s a strange team.

But in all honesty, Fnatic is a good team with good players. They have legends such as Flusha, JW and Krimz and they also have talents such as Brollan. I didn’t mention golden since he doesn’t qualify for any of these mentions, but he’s a good IGL at least.

The question remains though. Can they perform and keep that performance the entire tournament?

I don’t think they can. I don’t think the will. I’d say that they will perform quite good in the groups and lose in the playoffs.

Just like the usually do.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 7th place


FaZe

Statistics and Form of FaZe

Last 3 Months
Stats: 21 / 0 / 20
Maps Played: 41
Win rate: 51%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (6 – 4)
Worst Map: Mirage (2 – 4)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 3 out of 5 stars (3 / 5)

Summary:

FaZe is the team of superstars that never really evolves into a superstar team. They’ve had their fair share of superstar players in the past, and still do, but they never seem to reach that level as a team.

Recently they’ve removed bymas for kjaerbye and while that is a good addition I’m not sure how they will perform in the long run. They might suprise a lot of teams here, they might even win the tournament, but I can’t see that form last very long.

They’ve been promising for a long time but they’ve never reached that level of true consistency or that level that is needed to beat the top teams consistently. It’s a shame really. They have all they need but they just can’t perform when it matters the most.

Kjaerbye might be a good addition. In fact, I believe he will surprise many people, even the players in his own team, but I don’t think it will be enough. I just don’t. The team haven’t had any particular practice with him either which just adds to the conclusion.

FaZe needs a real IGL and real leadership. They don’t have that and that’s their biggest weakness. They can’t rely on teamplay and so they have to rely on individual performances. It doesn’t last forever.

We’ll have to see if it lasts the entire tournament and if the can win ESL One Cologne or not.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 5th place


Complexity

Statistics and Form of Complexity

Last 3 Months
Stats: 51 / 0 / 25
Maps Played: 76
Win rate: 67%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (11 – 1)
Worst Map: Inferno (2 – 4)
Permaban: Overpass
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 5 / 0 / 3
Maps Played: 8
Win rate: 62,5%
Best Map W/L: Nuke (2 – 0)
Worst Map: Mirage (1 – 2)
Permaban: Train
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Summary:

Complexity is one of the teams that I believe will end up in the top. I don’t believe that they’re completely there yet as a team to be able to compete with the best but at the same time they have the perfect chance right now to do just that. The games are online, the teams are just out of a break, the top teams don’t like to play online and so on. They really have a chance here.

The form in the last three months is really good. They’re at a 67% win rate with 76 maps played which I would consider really good. They’ve been one of the few teams that has been putting in the hours needed to succeed long term while the other team has been on a break.

In the last month they’ve played 8 maps over three games so far and has won 5 of them. The loss came against Heroic in a match that ended in overtime on the last map.

I know these guys want this and I know these guys are more than talented enough to be able to do it. If they manage to keep their cool, keep to their own playstyle and tactics, they can reach far in this tournament.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 4th place


Astralis

Last 3 Months
Stats: 8 / 0 / 9
Maps Played: 17
Win rate: 47%
Best Map W/L: Inferno (2 – 0)
Worst Map: Train (2 – 3)
Permaban: Mirage
Form: 2 out of 5 stars (2 / 5)

Summary:

Definitely the best team at ESL One Cologne if you look at what they have accomplished, what they can do in the future, and what type of players they have.

The form is questionable and there’s also questions regarding how they will look ingame. What’s not questionable is the possibilities of this team as they have too many good players to not be considered a contender.

Their stats is not so fun to look at. In fact, they’ve only played 17 maps over 10 games in the last three months. We have to look six months back if we want to find more data.

Their best map is Inferno and they’ve only played it two times in the last three months. If we look back six months we can see that Inferno still was their map, this time with a 11 – 2 scoreline. Their worst map in the last three months is Train but in their last six it was actually Nuke.

There’s a lot of questions regarding form and how Bubzkji and es3tag will fit in the team. I’m however certain that they will perform beyond what anyone believes. Astralis have what it takes and these two new additions adds an insane amount of firepower that Astralis never seen before.

I’m sure we will see that in this tournament.

Click here to read more about my pick on Astralis winning ESL One Cologne

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 1st place


NIP

Statistics and Form of NIP

Last 3 Months
Stats: 18 / 0 / 22
Maps Played: 42
Win rate: 43%
Best Map W/L: Mirage (4 – 2)
Worst Map: Nuke (1 – 5)
Permaban: Nuke
Form: 2 out of 5 stars (2 / 5)

Summary:

NIP’s form ain’t the best unfortunately. While they haven’t been playing anything the last month, as many other teams due to player break, the form they ended the season with wasn’t the best.

Still, I believe they have a lot to give. NIP is a good team, with good players and with a structure and playstyle that actually exists. They’re not known for their consistency nor their tactics but at least they try to find a style that they’re comfortable with.

I believe they will do okay at ESL One Cologne but since I don’t know their current form it’s hard for me to predict if they will make it to playoffs or not. I believe they will win the first match but that’s also it.

Click here to read my prediction about NIP’s first game!

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 11th place


OG

Statistics and Form about OG

Last 3 Months
Stats: 36 / 0 / 31
Maps Played: 67
Win rate: 53%
Best Map W/L: Inferno (9 – 4)
Worst Map: Train (4 – 6)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 3 out of 5 stars (3 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 9 / 0 / 9
Maps Played: 18
Win rate: 50%
Best Map W/L: Inferno (2 – 0)
Worst Map: Train (0 – 3)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 3 out of 5 stars (3 / 5)

Summary:

While OG’s form looks quite good I still have so much doubts about this team. They’re just bad, I’m sorry.

A team with NBK is not a team that can compete with the top teams. It’s a fact and it’s nothing that can be argued with or about. He’s just bad and he drags the team down with him. His days are over, and has been for a while already.

With losses over BIG, Heroic and Complexity and wins over PACT(x2), ForZe and Spirit, there’s just no room to not question them. They almost lost to PACT yesterday.

Like… how are they supposed to beat top teams at ESL One Cologne?

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 15th place


Mousesports

Statistics and Form about Mousesports


Last 3 Months
Stats: 8 / 1 / 18
Maps Played: 27
Win rate: 29%
Best Map W/L: Train (3 – 3)
Worst Map: Dust2 (0 – 6)
Permaban: Overpass
Form: 1 out of 5 stars (1 / 5)

Summary:

Mousesports has been a good team for a while now but since COVID-19 entered the world they have been nothing but bad. They’ve had multiple opportunities to perform and yet they’ve choked on more than one occasion.

Their current form is extremely hard to predict and as you can see it looks nothing but bad. Their best map is Train with a negative win rate and their worse map is Dust2 with zero wins. Dust2 even used to be one of their best maps in the past.

I don’t think they’re quite there yet to win this tournament but I do think that they will perform much better than everyone believes. They needed this break. Every player in the team looked burned out at the end of the season and 2020 has been nothing but a downfall. It’s not the mousesports that we used to know.

I still believe they will perform at ESL One Cologne. I do believe they have a chance of reaching the playoffs.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 8th place


MIBR

Statistics and Form about MIBR

Last 3 Months
Stats: 18 / 2 / 18
Maps Played: 38
Win rate: 47%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (6 – 2)
Worst Map: Overpass (1 – 5)
Permaban: Nuke
Form: 2 out of 5 stars (2 / 5)

Summary:

I’m not sure how MIBR are going to perform at ESL One Cologne. They ended the season with two losses but also had three straight wins before that. While that basically says nothing, 2020 so far hasn’t been anything special for them. In fact, MIBR hasn’t been anything special since they were the number one team in the world. That was years ago.

Why they dropped meyern and added trk is a question I ask myself everyday. They really fucked up this time, more than they use to do. Meyern was their best player without a doubt and also a talent that, with proper guidance, could take over the world.

Instead they dropped him and tried to find the solution to why this team is so bad but of course they couldn’t find the problem. You know why? Because the problem is the core players. They just don’t have it in them anymore.

MIBR is a team that won’t reach anywhere and a team that will continue to disappoint their fans, and themselves.

Good luck at ESL One Cologne

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 12th place


Heroic

Last 3 Months
Stats: 52 / 0 / 29
Maps Played: 81
Win rate: 64%
Best Map W/L: Nuke (8 – 2)
Worst Map: Dust2 (5 – 8)
Permaban: Dust2
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 10 / 0 / 5
Maps Played: 15
Win rate: 66%
Best Map W/L: Mirage (4 – 0)
Worst Map: Vertigo (0 – 1)
Permaban: Dust2
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Summary:

I strongly believe that Heroic can do wonders at ESL One Cologne. I believe that they have the power to overcome every team here, maybe except Astralis, on a good day. They lost to BIG yesterday in the finals of Dreamhack Open but before that they had four wins in a row.

Heroic is not bad, far from it. They are a structured team with a cool playstyle that relies heavily on teamplay. If the teamplay doesn’t work as it should, they don’t win the games. Luckily for them it usually does.

Heroic is definitely a team that can surprise at ESL One Cologne. I’d be scared if I were in the top teams knowing that I haven’t put in the right amount of hours into practice for this event.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 3rd place


MAD Lions

Last 3 Months
Stats: 12 / 1 / 18
Maps Played: 31
Win rate: 38%
Best Map W/L: Nuke (3 – 2)
Worst Map: Train (2 – 4)
Permaban: Dust2
Form: 1 out of 5 stars (1 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 1 / 0 / 5
Maps Played: 6
Win rate: 16%
Best Map W/L: Vertigo (1 -0)
Worst Map: Mirage (0 – 2)
Permaban: Dust2
Form: 1 out of 5 stars (1 / 5)

Summary:

I guess the statistics agree with me.

MAD Lions should never have dropped HUNDEN. That’s just a fact.

He’s not the best player individually and he’s not a player that they would’ve reached the top with, but he’s the player that introduced structure, tactics, dedication, mindset, trust and playstyle into the team. Kicking the player that is the entire team is quite dumb and the numbers agrees with me.

They have had a rough year and have barely been playing together with the new lineup. The last three months statistics are with Bubzkji even.

I have no words for MAD Lions. They killed themselves trying to go for firepower over brain.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 16th place


Heretics

Last 3 Months
Stats: 20 / 0 / 16
Maps Played: 36
Win rate: 55%
Best Map W/L: Nuke (5 – 2)
Worst Map: Vertigo (4 – 4)
Permaban: Train
Form: 3 out of 5 stars (3 / 5)

Last Month
Stats: 5 / 0 / 3
Maps Played: 8
Win rate: 80%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (2 – 1)
Worst Map: Vertigo (0 – 1)
Permaban: Train
Form: 5 out of 5 stars (5 / 5)

Summary:

It’s been a while since I saw Heretics play and it’s been a while since I had an opinion on this team. I just think they were a lot better before and I also think they’ve made some mistakes with their lineup.

Heretics form however is a good one, especially in the last month. While that always is a good thing the wins have been against worse teams not even close to the levels of the teams at ESL One Cologne.

It’s fair to say that they look good and that they’ve started the new season on a good note but we can’t draw a conclusion of their wins against these teams they’ve faced.

We have to wait and see how they perform at ESL One Cologne but I’m in doubt to whether they will stand a chance or not.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 14th place


Sprout

Last 3 Months
Stats: 48 / 0 / 28
Maps Played: 76
Win rate: 63%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (11 – 3)
Worst Map: Inferno (8 – 7)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 4 out of 5 stars (4 / 5)

Last 3 Months
Stats: 5 / 0 / 1
Maps Played: 6
Win rate: 83%
Best Map W/L: Dust2 (2 – 0)
Worst Map: Mirage (1 – 1)
Permaban: Vertigo
Form: 5 out of 5 stars (5 / 5)

Summary:

Sprout looks good, no matter how weird it may sound. The form in the last three months and the last month speaks for itself. They’ve been doing good.

Sure, they, just like Heretics, has been playing against worse team and therefore are able to get some better results, but I just sense that Sprout has something going on.

While I can’t say that they will perform that good as they’ve been doing recently against the top teams at ESL One Cologne, I still believe they at least have a fair chance.

If they just manage to get a grip of their playstyle and tactics I think they can get somewhere. I do not trust Spidii nor Denis capabilities and therefore Sprout will have to put their trust in dycha, faven and snatchie.

My ESL One Cologne Placement Prediction: 13th place


Does The Form Matter?

Both yes and no.

It’s always nice to see how well a team has performed in the past in order to predict how they will look going forward. It’s possible to find conclusions you wouldn’t find otherwise and it’s also possible to see some indications of where the team is heading. It’s not always accurate but it’s still a good measurement.

I’d say no because it doesn’t matter how good form a team has had in the past, it can still go in the wrong direction in a matter of seconds. Mousesports is a great example of that. They had an incredible 2019 and a good start of 2020 but all of a sudden they just started to lose even though the indications didn’t really say that they would.

I guess it’s what you make of it. Statistics never lies, but you can manipulate them. In this case Mousesports just hit a wall and started to fall. It was inevitable. It was a matter of time. The pandemic didn’t do them good either.

What I can say is this. BIG has done amazing so far. The real test will come at ESL One Cologne. If it would’ve been offline, the test would’ve been even bigger. Their offline performance is way worse than the one online. It’s also a parameter you have to take into account.


Who Will Win ESL One Cologne?

The odds say BIG, NaVi and Vitality and G2, depending on sportsbook of course. I’d agree in terms of form on BIG and Vitality but not on NaVi and G2.

The Astralis odds is also way above what it should be. I mean, if you’d only go for statistics then I’d be closer to an agreement.

Astralis form is not the best but there’s so much else too that team than just form. You have to think about what’s behind the curtain as well and what they’ve added to the team. You have to see what’s between the lines and what’s possible.

At least in CSGO. I’ve said it many times. CSGO is not like the other sports. These are young adults and teenagers without any sort of mindset. They act on emotions. Many of them have never played any real sports before. It’s just different. They can’t be taken serious.

In terms of value, Astralis to 12x is the best prediction. I could also consider FaZe, Mousesports and Complexity above 10x.

BIG to 6-7x just doesn’t make sense, even though the form is insane right now.


I hope you enjoyed this breakdown of the teams.

We’ll see how they will do at ESL One Cologne.

I’m not surprised if my predictions will be totally wrong but I’m not surprised if they’re completely right either.

That’s just CSGO!


Please note that you will find affiliate links on this website disguised in the text. It’s an alternative income that’s essential in the long run to be able to run the site. Thank you for your support!

close

SIGN UP TO MY NEWSLETTER AND RECEIVE A FREE EBOOK!

Categories GUIDES/NEWS

Post Author: alive

E-BOOKS

PARTNERS

RebelBetting - the worlds most popular sports arbitrage software


300×250 GIF

payhip

Twin Spin Up to £1000